Knowledge space

In July-August, 2023, CAREC Institute, Public Opinion Research Institute, and Asian Development Bank Institute conducted a sociological survey on household energy use in the Fergana Valley spanning over the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The following article uses the data from that survey for investigating what determines the choice of different energy types for heating. The article concludes that high household expenditures for coal and high awareness of the harm fossil fuels can inflict on the environment and family health are insufficient to trigger a large-scale shift towards cleaner energy. To motivate households for such a shift a substantial increase in fossil fuel prices compared to electricity and other clean energy is required. This might call for a sales tax on coal. However, energy expenditure already accounts for up to one-third of household income. Low- and middle-income households would need to be compensated for increased energy spending to avoid social hardship and a backlash against such a tax.

Central Asia is considered a region highly vulnerable to climate change impact and susceptible to climate-induced migration. Rural populations throughout the region are particularly at risk of experiencing adverse effects of climate variability and (im)mobility due to increased exposure to environmental hazards and distress that can severely affect agricultural productivity. This paper explores how climate change impacts migration trends in rural areas of Central Asia with an aim to contribute to the research on climate mobility in the region focusing on most vulnerable inhabitants. By examining the ongoing region's environmental degradation with increased aridity and retreating glaciers that affect local agriculture, water and food security, this paper suggests possible outcomes of such effects on rural mobility trends across five Central Asian countries.

The study aimed to evaluate the economic and financial viability of a coal mine methane (CMM) utilization project in Central Kazakhstan, demonstrating a methodology for similar initiatives. The analysis was based on the 2013 project proposed by the US Environmen-tal Protection Agency (EPA) that intended to capture methane emissions from six coal mines for electricity generation, yet was never implemented. The study’s relevance stems from Kazakhstan's 2030 methane pledge, recent progress in the country's climate change-related policy, mineworker mortality in 2023, and the shift of mines ownership. Building upon the technical specifications of the 2013 US EPA project, this research em-ployed standard financial and economic cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The financial model utilized a traditional discounted free cash flow approach, while the economic model in-corporated additional factors like the value of statistical life (VSL), shadow pricing, as well as benefits associated with mitigating ozone health impacts, crop damage, mine ex-plosion risks, and CO2 emissions. The economic model has indicated a positive net pre-sent value of $243 mln and 42% internal rate of return. The financial analysis also sug-gests potential profitability under fair electricity and carbon pricing market conditions. To assess project robustness under varying economic and financial assumptions, the study included a sensitivity analysis. The research has likewise leveraged prior CMM-related studies in Kazakhstan and provides valuable guidance for analyzing similar projects. In addition, it also highlights the need for certain adjustments in the current legislation to incentivize such projects, as well as to promote environmental sustainability and social development by mitigating methane emissions, which aligns with Kazakhstan's climate goals.

The Badam River, a tributary to the Arys River located in the Syr Darya basin, is a crucial natural resource for ecological, social, and economic activities in the semi-arid region of southern Kazakhstan. The river basin is heavily influenced by manmade water infrastructure and faces water scarcity, particularly during summer, highlighting the importance of understanding its hydrological processes for effective water resource management. In this study, a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model of the Badam River was implemented using the RS MINERVE hydrological software to evaluate the impacts of climate change on hydrology and to test the resilience of the water system. Connected HBV models were implemented for each of the hydrological response units that were defined as altitudinal zones. The hydrological model was calibrated using daily time steps between 1979 and 2011, and the resulting flow exceedance curves and hydrographs were used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the basin, using CMIP6 precipitation and temperature scenarios. Future climate scenarios for the 2054 – 2064 period demonstrate that the peak discharge will be shifted to spring/late spring compared to the current early summer with no significant decrease in average discharge per day of the year. The insights gained from this hydrological-hydraulic model can be used to effectively manage the water system and inform future hydropower design decisions and serve as a blueprint for similar studies in the region and elsewhere.

The article presents the results of investigating the morphological variability of carp (Cyprinus carpio Linnaeus, 1758) in three large reservoirs of the Balkash-Alakol Basin – Lake Balkash, Lake Alakol, and Kapshagay Reservoir. Morphological differences in several features (counting and plasticity) were found in three carp samples. The study included the examination of 24 plastic and 14 counting features. The method of digital image processing (Morpho J) was applied to analyze the differences of the target fish species specimens by body shape. The application of the principal component analysis (PCA) method allowed determining the main loadings on the studied morphological traits of carp. The statistically reliable differences revealed allow to confirm the formation of morphological changes in carp caused by
the duration of adaptive radiation, environmental factors of water bodies and annual artificial stocking of young fish.