Центр знаний

This article explores opportunities for water scarcity to motivate neighboring nations in transboundary basins to cooperate in the development and allocation of water. Climate change raises the importance of discovering foundations for this cooperation. The authors examine the development of infrastructure and allocation of water in the controversial Amu Darya Basin. An analysis is presented that characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized water-use patterns in the basin. Using information on the basin’s energy potential, water supplies, land area, crop water requirements, and crop economics, we analyze total basin-wide economic welfare over a 20 year period. Results show that the development and operation of the planned Rogun Dam has the potential to secure agricultural benefits downstream for Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, while supplying some winter power upstream in Tajikistan in normal water conditions. Results show that the ongoing conflict in the Amu Darya Basin over water infrastructure and allocation has the potential to be resolved in a way to secure economic gains for all four nations. However, patient and difficult political negotiations will be required to achieve the gains indicated.