Knowledge space

This study explores pathways to transformation through a focus on water relations among states, examining the intersection of water resources management, political conflicts, and historical grievances: (1) Ukraine and Russia regarding North Crimea Canal; and (2) Afghanistan and Pakistan in Kabul River Basin. Using these cases to support water conflict prevention, this study explores water interactions (disputes, arrangements, and agreements) from the time of respective sovereign statehoods: Afghanistan (1919), Pakistan (1947), and Ukraine and Russia (1991) through to 2022. The design of this study incorporates the Transboundary Waters Interaction Nexus (TWINs) framework to assess past water interactions; with the Four Stages of Water Conflict Transformation framework, used to assess 2022 state-level relations to determine collaborative skills to cultivate water transformation. Findings indicate that while Ukraine- Russia water relations are adversarial, and Afghanistan-Pakistan are in the reflective negotiation stage—territorial disputes and political economic dynamics hamper cooperation, though points of leverage (such as neutral third-party mediation, shared environmental and economic interests, and water diplomacy and legal frameworks) exist. This research provides value through broadening preventative and transformative strategies in politically sensitive and geopolitically unstable regions—showing that water can be a catalyst for equity and regional securitization.

Pollution and over-exploitation of groundwater aquifers in Kabul Province have led to deteriorated water quality and decreased quantity. In its turn, these have caused elevation of physical, chemical, and biological contaminant concentrations in the province’s groundwater beyond national and international drinking water quality standards. The article describes the outcomes of a pilot photovoltaic reverse osmosis (PV-RO) system for drinking water treatment in Qala-e-Gulbaz Village, Kabul Province, Afghanistan. The main system’s components include PV solar panels, three dosing pumps, two alternative current pumps, two alternative-to-direct-current inverters, sand and carbon filters, two sediment filters, one ultra-violet filter, two water flow meters, and a complete water supply distribution system. The study was assisted by the Danish Committee for Aid to Afghan Refugees (DACAAR) ground monitoring well (GMW) system; quality analysis of different physical, chemical, and biological parameters of raw and filtered water samples; measuring filtered water and wastewater flow rates; determining associated limitations and pressures; as well as valuating different related expenses during cost per capita calculations. Water quality testing has shown the system’s removal efficiency of 97% for salinity, 97% for total dissolved solids, above 90% for other chemicals (anions & cations), 65.52% for turbidity, and 100% for bacteria. The plant’s mean quantity efficiency has amounted to 50%. The study highlights certain key challenges including high initial cost, significant wastewater volume, and need for professional operators leading to high operational and maintenance expenditures, with the initial system’s cost per capita of USD79.54. Therefore, under the condition of optimizing efficiency, improving wastewater management, reducing original costs, implementing training programs, and developing the necessary policy framework PV-RO water treatment systems represent a viable alternative.

The water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus is being promoted as a conceptual idea for achieving sustainable development, that describes the interconnections and interdependencies between those three sectors. The main objective of this article is to operationalize the WEF nexus concept in lift-irrigated areas of Uzbekistan through involving local stakeholders, to investigate the WEF nexus within the lift-irrigated agriculture of the Kashkadarya region, an area heavily reliant on the Karshi Canal system. The study is grounded in the urgent need for sustainable development, with a focus on enhancing intersectoral cooperation between water, energy, and food sectors. A case study methodology was employed, incorporating semi-structured interviews with experts, alongside local farmers and scientists. Data were analysed using the qualitative analysis software, Atlas.ti. The results indicate significant challenges to intersectoral cooperation in the WEF nexus, including lack of trust, communication barriers, differing priorities, and insufficient political will. However, the findings also highlight the potential benefits of improved cooperation, such as enhanced resource efficiency, reduced operational costs, and mitigated risks from environmental stressors like drought. The study concludes that, according to stakeholders’ opinions, while the WEF nexus presents critical opportunities for advancing sustainable development in Uzbekistan, substantial barriers must be addressed to realize these benefits. Recommendations include promoting sustainable agriculture to reduce water dependency, improving energy security by diversifying energy sources, and raising awareness of the WEF nexus’s importance. Furthermore, fostering stronger stakeholder cooperation is crucial for achieving Uzbekistan’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.

The study was conducted in 2023 and comprised a comparative assessment of the state of Lake Markakol’s aquatic ecosystems in surface and bottom water strata. The analysis of bottom water temperatures showed correlation between this parameter and dissolved oxygen concentrations, indicating that pollution caused by organic impurities leads to lake eutrophication, in turn, pro-pelling the extinction of aquatic life. Although the main water physicochemical parameters of Markakol Lake correspond to the oligotrophic type, the shifts in dissolved oxygen and phos-phate content, as well as growth of aquatic vegetation indicate its transition to the mesotrophic type. Higher phosphate content in water is a consequence of pollution disturbing the biological balance, as well as stimulating the reservoir’s eutrophication and increased biological productivity, i.e. algal bloom. In addition, phosphate ions serve an informative indicator of Hazard Class 3 (organoleptically hazardous) anthropogenic pollution. Based on the correlation factor (r), two statistical models were considered for the target lake: 1) Water Pollution: nutri-ent concentrations depending on surface and bottom water temperatures (Model 1); and 2) changes in Water Pollution Indices (biogenic, heavy metals, mean) because of air temperature growth due to global warming of 0.25°C/decade (Model 2).

Water diplomacy encompasses the processes and institutions through which the national interests and identities of sovereign states are represented to one another. It is enshrined in international law, which states use to explain and justify their policies to concerned actors in the international system. States mostly prefer traditional tools of water diplomacy such as negotiation and mediation to resolve disputes in transboundary river basins.

The study aimed to evaluate the economic and financial viability of a coal mine methane (CMM) utilization project in Central Kazakhstan, demonstrating a methodology for similar initiatives. The analysis was based on the 2013 project proposed by the US Environmen-tal Protection Agency (EPA) that intended to capture methane emissions from six coal mines for electricity generation, yet was never implemented. The study’s relevance stems from Kazakhstan's 2030 methane pledge, recent progress in the country's climate change-related policy, mineworker mortality in 2023, and the shift of mines ownership. Building upon the technical specifications of the 2013 US EPA project, this research em-ployed standard financial and economic cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The financial model utilized a traditional discounted free cash flow approach, while the economic model in-corporated additional factors like the value of statistical life (VSL), shadow pricing, as well as benefits associated with mitigating ozone health impacts, crop damage, mine ex-plosion risks, and CO2 emissions. The economic model has indicated a positive net pre-sent value of $243 mln and 42% internal rate of return. The financial analysis also sug-gests potential profitability under fair electricity and carbon pricing market conditions. To assess project robustness under varying economic and financial assumptions, the study included a sensitivity analysis. The research has likewise leveraged prior CMM-related studies in Kazakhstan and provides valuable guidance for analyzing similar projects. In addition, it also highlights the need for certain adjustments in the current legislation to incentivize such projects, as well as to promote environmental sustainability and social development by mitigating methane emissions, which aligns with Kazakhstan's climate goals.

MAR remains relatively underutilized in Central Asia despite its potential to address water scarcity issues, particularly those related to seasonal fluctuations in water availability. Thus, the objective of this study was to produce a map depicting the potential suitability of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) implementation in Kazakhstan. Employing a multi-criteria decision analysis framework, five distinct physical criteria were integrated and visualized within a Geographic Information System (GIS) to delineate the intrinsic potential for MAR. To demonstrate the practical utility of the generated map, it was applied to the Zhambyl region in Southern Kazakhstan, an area previously afflicted by water scarcity challenges. The intrinsic MAR potential map was overlaid with remote sensing data identifying potential water sources and water utilization patterns. This overlay facilitated the identification of priority areas with potential for further evaluation for MAR implementation. The map developed for Kazakhstan represents the first spatial representation of MAR potential within the region, serving to raise awareness regarding the feasibility of MAR application. It is anticipated that dissemination of this map will enhance understanding among water management professionals, potentially catalysing the integration of MAR methodologies into regional water management strategies.

The question of suitable approaches and technologies for more effective and environmentally friendly management of natural resources has great relevance for the countries of Central Asia in the context of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Despite the wide range of natural resources, Central Asia is still facing increasing land degradation and water scarcity. These problems are being accelerated by land-use pressure and climate change, which is particularly severe in Central Asia. The following recommendations are developed together with scientists from international projects on the use of GIS technologies and modelling approaches for more sustainable resource management.

In July-August, 2023, CAREC Institute, Public Opinion Research Institute, and Asian Development Bank Institute conducted a sociological survey on household energy use in the Fergana Valley spanning over the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The following article uses the data from that survey for investigating what determines the choice of different energy types for heating. The article concludes that high household expenditures for coal and high awareness of the harm fossil fuels can inflict on the environment and family health are insufficient to trigger a large-scale shift towards cleaner energy. To motivate households for such a shift a substantial increase in fossil fuel prices compared to electricity and other clean energy is required. This might call for a sales tax on coal. However, energy expenditure already accounts for up to one-third of household income. Low- and middle-income households would need to be compensated for increased energy spending to avoid social hardship and a backlash against such a tax.

The article investigates certain low-cost filtering materials and their filtration efficiency for open well sources in terms of economic access to clean water in Anakapalle, a suburb of Visa-khapatnam, India, during the pre-monsoon period of 2022. The corresponding research aimed to study a selection of filter materials including coconut shell activated carbon, rice husk ash, manganese modified sand, and graphene oxide, as well as assess their performance against selected physico-chemical parameters of water. Considering the basic idea of slow sand and gravity-based filtration, a setup was arranged with a cartridge filled with layers of filtering materials and a ceramic candle filter. Adsorption turned out the most pronounced removal mechanism that took place when utilizing the aforementioned filter materials. The main focus of the study was to reduce pH, TDS, hardness, alkalinity, chlorides and iron content by applying dif-ferent filtration removal mechanisms. The study results show a significant drop in turbidity, pH, TDS and chlorides, and small reduction in hardness when coconut shell activated carbon and rice husk ash were used as filtration media. Whereas the chemically coated medium – manga-nese modified sand – demonstrated a considerable fall in iron concentrations, graphene oxide sand was observed to reduce alkalinity for any sample source.

Река Бадам, приток реки Арыс, входящая в состав Сырдарьинского бассейна, представляет собой важнейший природный ресурс для экологической и социально-экономической деятельности в зоне полузасушливого климата Южного Казахстана. Существенное влияние на речной бассейн оказывает искусственная водная инфраструктура. Бассейн также сталкивается с дефицитом воды, особенно летом, что подчеркивает важность понимания гидрологических процессов, происходящих в его границах, для эффективного управления водными ресурсами. В рамках настоящего исследования с целью оценки воздействия изменения климата на гидрологию и анализа устойчивости водной системы на базе гидрологического программного пакета RS MINERVE была создана полураспределенная концептуальная гидрологическая модель р. Бадам. Связанные модели HBV были реализованы для каждой из гидрологических единиц реакции, которые были определены как высотные зоны. Гидрологическая модель была откалибрована с использованием дневных временных интервалов за период с 1979 по 2011 гг. Полученные кривые вероятности превышения стока и гидрографы были использованы для оценки потенциального воздействия изменения климата на целевой бассейн с использованием сценариев осадков и температуры CMIP6. Будущие климатические сценарии на период 2054-2064 гг. указывают на смещение пикового стока на весенний/поздневесенний период по сравнению с текущим ранним летом без значительного снижения среднесуточного стока в течение года. Созданная гидрологико-гидравлического модель и результаты моделирования могут быть использованы для обеспечения эффективного управления водной системой и обоснования будущих гидроэнергетических проектов, а также могут служить основой для проведения аналогичных исследований в регионе и за его пределами.

This article explores major findings and evolutions in understandings of transboundary water conflict and cooperation over the last three decades, focusing on the trends emerging from the Transboundary Freshwater Diplomacy Database. It is found that since the 1940s, countries tend to cooperate over shared water resources, in contrast to media portrayals of 'water wars'. Water conflicts, which have increased slightly since 2000, are mostly fuelled by water quantity disputes or unilateral infrastructure developments. Institutions play a role in facilitating cooperation and reducing conflict over shared waters, but their growth and adoption have slowed over the last few decades.

The article presents the results of investigating the morphological variability of carp (Cyprinus carpio Linnaeus, 1758) in three large reservoirs of the Balkash-Alakol Basin – Lake Balkash, Lake Alakol, and Kapshagay Reservoir. Morphological differences in several features (counting and plasticity) were found in three carp samples. The study included the examination of 24 plastic and 14 counting features. The method of digital image processing (Morpho J) was applied to analyze the differences of the target fish species specimens by body shape. The application of the principal component analysis (PCA) method allowed determining the main loadings on the studied morphological traits of carp. The statistically reliable differences revealed allow to confirm the formation of morphological changes in carp caused by
the duration of adaptive radiation, environmental factors of water bodies and annual artificial stocking of young fish.

Countries in Central Asia, which are highly vulnerable to climate change, experience a variety of health-related impacts to which they must adapt. At the same time, climate mitigation interventions in the health sector in the form of reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may also generate co-benefits. This article briefly outlines current understanding of the relationship between climate change impacts and human health in Central Asia and establishes a scope of inquiry based on climate and health linkages as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It then identifies and summarizes existing research and reporting on this topic in the region as presented in published literature, country reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and gray literature, including policy literature and documentation of donor-funded development interventions in the region. This review, which attempts to summarize and appraise those efforts, has found that both peer-reviewed and grey literature on this topic must be used with caution. The most frequent problems with peer-reviewed and grey literature resources involved confounding bias, and—to a lesser extent—self-reporting bias. The use of an appraisal framework for grey literature sources can frame these diverse resources in the proper context, identify potential shortcomings, and gain insights into current priorities and future direction for research on climate change and health in the region.

Энергетический переход продолжается с беспрецедентной скоростью и масштабом, требуя новых технологий с низким уровнем выбросов углерода. Зеленый водород рассматривается как часть решения для достижения декарбонизации промышленности, что потребует согласованных действий со стороны промышленности и правительства для того, чтобы Казахстан смог получить выгоды.